A Re-Examination of Forces and Factors Affecting

Ohio School District OAT and OGT Performance

Randy L. Hoover, Ph. D.

Department of Teacher Education

Beeghly College of Education

Youngstown State University

Youngstown, Ohio

August 26, 2008


   I would like to express my sincerest gratitude to James Dittrich of Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia for his assistance verifying and validating the data and analyses used in this research study. –rlh

Section One:


            This research study examines 609[1] Ohio school districts in terms of student performance on all grade-level tests and sub-tests of the 2007 Ohio Achievement Tests (OAT) and how that performance compares to performance in 1997. In February 2000, I released a similar study of district-level performance, entitled Forces and Factors Affecting Ohio Proficiency Test Performance: A Study of 593 Ohio School Districts[2]. This earlier study examined 593 Ohio districts on all of the 1997 grade-level tests and sub-tests. The primary finding of this previous study was that student performance on the tests was most significantly (r = 0.80) affected by the non-school variables within the student social-economic living conditions. Indeed, the statistical significance of the predictive power of SES led to the inescapable conclusion that the tests had no academic accountability or validity whatsoever.

            The purpose of this current research study is to: 1) Mathematically re-examine, compare, and contrast the primary outcomes of the 1997 data analysis in terms of the 2007 data; 2) Focus on the validity and fairness of the Ohio Achievement Tests and the Ohio Graduation Test (OGT); and 3) Reflect on the credibility of the Ohio School Report Card within the research findings relative to the Federal Government performance mandates of No Child Left Behind (NCLB).

            As with the initial study, the data were analyzed using linear regression and Pearson's Correlation (Pearson's r) procedures. The current study is not as broad as the first, using only the statistically significant primary findings of the first to target the current analysis. In simple terms, the statistical procedures are used to determine what factors are the greatest predictors of student performance. The findings of the original study showed unequivocally that non-school variables (e.g., mean family income, school lunch subsidy, economic disadvantage) were the greatest predictors of student performance, not in-school variables (e.g., class size, per pupil expenditure). In other words, the reality of the living conditions, the lived experience of the students outside of school, was the significant predictor of OAT performance.

            Likewise, the findings of this second study of data ten years later yield the same conclusion: Performance on the Ohio Proficiency Test is most significantly related to the social-economic living conditions, the lived experiences of the pupils to the extent that the tests are found to have no academic validity nor educational accountability validity whatsoever.

Section Two:

Primary Findings

            This study examines the 609 of the 611 Ohio school districts on all sections of the 2007 third-grade, fourth-grade, fifth-grade, sixth-grade, seventh-grade, eighth-grade Ohio Achievement Tests, and the Ohio Graduation Test. (Table 1). Therefore, the research analysis used 23 sets of test data for each of the 609 school districts-- a total of 14,007 data cells representing Ohio school district performance.

- TABLE 1 -

2007 Grade-Level and Subject-Area Test Data Sources

Grade Level




Social Studies


3rd Grade




4th Grade





5th Grade






6th Grade




7th Grade





8th Grade












            Because this study is fundamentally intended to re-examine the primary findings of the previous analysis (Hoover, 2000) to determine if the lived experience of the student remains the single, primary determinant of test performance, the data analysis resulted in the isolation of two economic variables and one social variable as most powerful in predicting test performance. The variables resulting from this study having the most significant predictive validity for test performance are: Median Family Income (Federal), Percent Economically Disadvantaged, and Percent of Single Parent Wage Earners (Federal).

            All test data used in this study of 2007 district test performance are taken directly from the online Ohio Department of Education's Educational Management Information System (EMIS)[3] of the State of Ohio and have not been derived from any secondary source. The demographic data of Median Family Income and Single Parent Wage Earners are taken from the Ohio Department of Taxation[4] and the Economically Disadvantaged data are from the EMIS-ODE source.

            As with the first study, linear regression is used to examine the relationship between variables such as median family income and district test performance. Basically, linear regression allows us to perceive how the change in one set of variables relates to corresponding change in the other set of variables. Statistical correlation then allows us to determine the strength of the relationship between the two sets of variables. The correlation used in this study is called "Pearson's Correlation" or "Pearson's r."

            It is this correlation result that tells how significant the association is between the pairs of variables. Correlation analysis yields what is called the "correlation coefficient" or "r." The range of "r" is from -1.0 to 1.0. The closer that "r" is to -1.0 or 1.0, the stronger the relationship between the two sets of variables being analyzed. For example, where r = 1.0, the correlation is perfect and where r = 0.0, there is no relationship whatsoever. In cases where the r value is negative, the correlation is said to be inverse, meaning that as the value of one variable increases, the value of the other decreases. (See the graphs of Economic Disadvantaged and Single Parent Wage Earners for examples of inverse correlations.) In cases where the r value is positive, as the value of one variable increases so does the value of the other variable.

            In social science research, a perfect correlation is rarely, if ever, found. Indeed, correlations approaching either r = 0.40 or r = -0.40 are usually considered significant. It is suggested that the reader consult a good statistics text for better understanding of the details and assumptions involved with regression analysis and correlation. It needs to be noted that the primary finding of this study regarding the relationship between the lived experience of the student and district performance is r = 0.78, a significantly high correlation by any statistical standard. The findings of this study are considered statistically significant within the standards of the field of statistics.

            This study, as with the first study, produced results that confirm that OAT and OGT performance are vastly more indicative of the out-of-school, lived experience of the students rather than indicative of academics. Although numerous variables were run against district test performance, no in-school variables produced statistically significant results. Likewise, all social-economic variables produced significant results. The most significant individual predictors of test performance were found to be:

  1. Median federal family income[5] of the school district (r = 0.62 ).
  2. Percent of students within the school district classified as Economically Disadvantaged by the State of Ohio (r = 0.75 ).
  3. Percent of single-parent wage earners within the school district (r = 0.77).

Median Family Income (MFI) This variable is the median federal income tax of all families living within each of the 609 school districts. Clearly an economic factor, MFI is an indicator of how advantaged or disadvantaged the home life of the students and community is. Figure 1 is a graph of MFI as a predictor district performance.

- FIGURE 1 -

The correlation coefficient of r = 0.62 shows that as MFI increases, so does the level of school district performance. While MFI is statistically significant as a performance predictor, it should be noted that it is a variable that includes all families in a school district, not just those with children in school and, thus, may underestimate the overall effect of income on school-age children's lived experience since those families with children tend to have lower family incomes and/or less deposable income per child than those without children.

      Looking closely at the plots on the scatter diagram suggests to us that there is a curvilinear relationship between the two variables, which suggests statistically that the correlation coefficient is underestimating the degree of actual association between the two variables. When we apply a statistical procedure using linear-log analysis[6] (Figure 1a), it does reveal a curvilinear structure yielding the more accurate correlation coefficient to be r = 0.66.

- FIGURE 1a -

Percent Economically Disadvantaged (PED)— This variable is derived by the State of Ohio from the number of students eligible for the federal free and reduced lunch program. Similar to MFI, this variable is clearly an economic indicator of the lived experience of the children in a school district's student population. However, because eligibility is specific to the children within a school district, it is a more precise indicator of the lived experience of the child economically than is MFI.

- FIGURE 2 -

            The r value for this variable is -0.75, which is extremely high in its predictive validity, its statistical association with test performance. The r = -0.75 means that there is an inverse relationship between test performance and increasing percent of students in this category—as the number of students classified as economically disadvantaged goes up, the overall district test performance goes down. This result, again, verifies that the OAT and OGT are far more sensitive to testing the lived experience of the child than to academic achievement.

Single Parent Wage Earners (SPWE)— SPWE is a variable that is not solely an economic factor as used in this study. Rather, it is used as an indicator of the single-parent family social context of the child's lived experience in addition to the economic aspect of the high correlation between SPWE and the LEI (r = 0.78).

- FIGURE 3 -

The correlation coefficient of SPWE being r = -0.77 exceeds that of both MFI and PED and is a powerful predictor of district test performance. From the graphed data, it is again apparent that Ohio's testing program is extremely sensitive to the nature of the lived experience of each school district's children rather than the impact the schools are actually having in terms of academic achievement.

Lived Experience Index (LEI) -- Building upon the revelations of the first research study and the significantly substantial findings of the current study, an index was created from the three most statistically significant predictors of OAT-OGT performance in order to attempt to create a strong and consistent (stable) predictor of district performance. The Lived Experience Index (LEI) was created by arithmetically combining[7] the three most highly predictive variables (MFI, PED, and SPWE) and was then tested for its predictive validity[8]. Figure 4 shows the results of this process.

- FIGURE 4 -

Most simply defined, the LEI is the degree of social and economic advantage the students experience in their daily lives as children. The creation of an index in social science is neither new nor mysterious. Indices such as the LEI are created using verifiable statistical methods and used as succinct indicators of social, political, and/or economic conditions. For example, the consumer price index and the gross national product are commonly used to inform the public of social-economic conditions. The LEI formulation is extremely straightforward in its arithmetic simplicity— it is not a hidden way of spinning the argument against Ohio using achievement tests that lack academic validity and that are not credible in reporting school accountability. Indeed, the Ohio School Report Card uses the index method—Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) and the classification/ranking system, among others, are both statistical indices. Most recently, Ohio has started to phase in another school and educator accountability index: Value Added.

The power of the Lived Experience Index is seen in its having an r value of 0.78 out of a possible 1.00, thus having extremely high predictive validity for district test performance. In terms of this research study, LEI and its statistically significant relationship to test performance stands as the benchmark for the overall finding of the research study: Ohio's achievement tests are not valid assessments of academic achievement.

As with the study of 1997 test performance, this study clearly indicates that the range of tests lacks validity across all social-economic levels in terms of assessing academic performance. In other words, the analysis of the data shows the test performance results are equally and consistently invalid regardless of whether the districts are performing poorly or well. The results clearly and significantly show that it is not just a matter of districts with more disadvantaged students for whom the tests are invalid; they are equally invalid for districts with high passing rates as well. That is, just because most of the students in some districts pass, we cannot make the claim that they do so because they know how to apply the academic content material. Understanding this counter intuitive notion, an apparent paradox, is discussed in Section 6.

Section Three:

Actual Performance[9]

It is possible to use even the bias-flawed test results of school district performance to begin to derive and examine actual district performance. The concept of actual district performance reflects the statistical reality that once we are able to establish the effects of the Lived Experience Index on school district performance, we then are able to compare the predicted rate of passing determined by the regression analysis with the actual rate of passing given the LEI score for the district. In this sense, we are controlling for the effects of lived experience for each of the 609 Ohio school districts and can examine student performance through a very different lens than does the State of Ohio.

            In other words, since we know the power of the LEI effect (r = 0.78) and, that most conservatively it determines 61% of the test performance, we can then examine district performance controlling for the LEI scores by comparing the predicted passing rate to the actual passing rate then comparing those performances[10].

            Figure 5 is a graphing of actual district performance because it shows how districts are performing with the social-economic determiners contained in the LEI removed.[11] Essentially, it is a graph that indicates how far arithmetically districts are above or below the regression line shown in Figure 4, the graph of The Lived Experience Index as a Predictor of District Performance at the end of Section Two.

The arithmetic distance above or below the regression line of the graph seen in Figure 4 is termed a "residual" and represents the difference between where we would expect a district to fall based upon the predictive power of the LEI and where the district actually falls. Loosely put, from this statistical procedure and its graph, we can identify school districts that can be thought of as performing higher than expected, performing as expected, or performing lower than expected.

This graph of actual district performance, Figure 5, uses z-score transformation of the raw scores.. This is done so that we may see how significant the actual performance of any given district is above or below what we would expect. Z-score transformations are based upon the standard deviation of a set of raw scores.

- FIGURE 5 -

           Most simply put, standard deviation describes how a set of scores is distributed around the mean of the set. For use in this study, basic knowledge of standard deviation is helpful in reading and understanding the z-scores. Z-scores tell us how many standard deviations above or below the mean a score is. Z-scores greater than 1.0 or lower than -1.0 suggest more significant performance beyond those within 1.0 and -1.0. In the case of reasonably normal distributions such as with the data in this study, approximately 68% of the scores will fall within the 1.0 and -1.0 range of the first standard deviation. This range is the area between the thin, horizontal black lines in Figure 5.

Likewise, 95% of the scores will fall within the limits of the second standard deviation (2.0 and -2.0), the area between the thin, red horizontal lines seen in Figure 5. Scores that are two, three, or four standard deviations above or below the mean are progressively more extreme in actual performance beyond what we would expect given their LEI scores. The following bullets are taken from the first study and may serve as a reader's guide to the graph of actual performance using z-scores and standard deviation.

•  The upper left quadrant represents districts that are performing average or above average and have average or below average levels of advantagement.

•  The upper right quadrant represents districts performing average or above average and have average or above average LEI scores.

•  The lower left quadrant represents districts that are performing average or below average and have average or below average advantagement.

•  The lower right quadrant represents districts performing average or below average and have average or above average LEI scores.

•  The greater the distance above or below the x-axis (the horizontal dark blue line), the more the district is performing respectively beyond or below what would be expected given the LEI score of the particular district.

•  Districts falling between +1 and -1 on the x-axis are all within one standard deviation of the mean and may be considered as having performance that is about where we would expect them to perform.

•  Any district above the +1 mark of the x-axis is performing significantly better than average and better than would be expected. Likewise, any district below the -1 mark below the x-axis is performing significantly lower than average and lower than would be expected.

Summary Comments Regarding Actual Performance

   Given the sanctions against schools and school districts by the State of Ohio in compliance with NCLB mandates as well as the high-stakes nature of OGT imposed upon graduation requirements in Ohio, the data and analysis of actual performance present an important reality that must not go unnoticed: There are as many school districts with advantaged students significantly under performing as there are school districts with disadvantaged student populations. Similarly, the same is true of those districts that are performing well above expectations.

   This reality, again, shows Ohio's school accountability system to be grossly misleading at best and grossly unfair at worst. Ohio's current accountability system perpetuates the political fiction that poor children can't learn and teachers in schools with poor children can't teach. Indeed, the system of reporting school district and building level accountability progress, The Ohio School Report Card, is as misleading to all Ohio stakeholders as it is unfair to Ohio's children and their educators.

   If we are to report the degree to which educators move students along the continuum of academic achievement, we must use valid assessments and report progress using a demonstrably credible school report card—one that is worthy of belief by all. This section on actual performance merely corrects for the test validity problem of the bias against districts with more disadvantaged students and the bias favoring districts with more advantaged students. Section Six will briefly discuss why students perform as they do on the tests.

Section Four:

Additional Important Findings


The primary findings of the current study are statistically the same as those of the previous study. The correlations on the social-economic indicators are so close that they can be considered statistically the same. In the 2000 study, the index of prediction using Percent Economically Disadvantaged, Mean Family Income, and Percent Free-Reduced Lunch yielded an r = 0.80 compared to the LEI, which yielded an r = 0.78, a difference of two-hundredths of a point, which is statistically a dead heat. The correlation of district test performance with the lived experience of the child still provides the evidence for the complete lack of academic validity on the part of Ohio's achievement tests.

These comparative data led to examination of the degree to which the 1997 rankings of Ohio's school districts by overall performance levels compared to the 2007 rankings. The correlation is r = 0.80, which is extremely high and statistically significant. This r value speaks to the relative performance position of each district being almost the same as in 1997. In other words, the districts tend to line up very similarly to the way they ranked ten years ago—the wealthy districts are at the top, middle class districts in the middle, and underclass districts at the bottom.

Likewise, an examination of changes in the percentile rank of each district comparing 1997 data with 2007 data shows that the average change in percentile rank from 1997 is 0.10% or one-tenth of a percentile. This is a very telling statistic and supports the finding that little has changed when we take a big-picture view of Ohio's district level performance ranking comparison.

However, it is worth noting that while the average district percentile change in the rank is extremely low overall in the 609 districts, several districts show extremely large gains in percentile rank (e.g., + 86.4), and an equal number show extremely large losses (e.g., - 80.3). These performance extremes will be examined more closely as time permits after the release of this study.

Comparatively, only one dimension shows moderately significant change from the 1997 performance data. District performance as a function of percent white and percent African-American shows a greater differential in the 2007 data and needs to be examined. This ten-year comparative performance difference is examined in the ensuing sub-section, The African-American Achievement Gap.

The term achievement gap refers to test performance differentials among identifiable groups that are seen when test data are disaggregated into subgroups such as disabled-non-disabled, Black-Hispanic-, male-female, wealthy-poor, and others. Seemingly, the two most dominant achievement gaps in terms of claims made by the Ohio Department of Education (ODE) and press releases from State Superintendent Zelman's office are black-white and rich-poor. However, it is one thing to claim there are achievement gaps and quite another to verify what they truly are and how they are determined.

            Essential and requisite to the credibility of claiming achievement gaps is the important element of the test's statistical validity[12]does the test accurately assess that which it claims to assess. Once a test is determined to be valid using the appropriate and acceptable procedures well established in the field of tests and measurement, test reliability must be established mathematically in order for the test to be considered worthy and test results credible[13]. Likewise, any claims about what the test data show such as an achievement gap, must be based in clear proof that test validity and reliability have been established scientifically. The research findings from the 2000 study and this 2007 study both support the case that the tests are not valid because the results are shown to be determined almost exclusively by the lived experience of the students—their lives outside of school.

The Ohio School Report Card reflects the identical bias or validity problem found in district test performance, Figure 6. Again, taken at face value, the distribution of the number of standards or indicators met by a district is a function of the LEI index (r = 0.73), thus seemingly verifying the rich-poor achievement gap. However, there are 30 indicators used and reported by the OSRC, and all but two of the 30 indicators are directly based on test performance. The nearly exclusive reliance on 28 test indicators guarantees a carry over of any test bias into the portrayal of district performance shown in the Ohio School Report Cards.

- FIGURE 6 -

            Therefore, the apparent performances on the 30 State indicators as given on OSRC and as shown in Figure 6 are misleading because of the effects of OSRC reliance on test performance that is simply not representative of a valid assessment of academic achievement resulting from time spent in school because the tests can be shown to primarily assessing the lived experience of the test taker.

Similarly, test performance for educator accountability and the concomitant district and building-level Ohio School Report Card ratings (Excellent, Effective, Continuous Improvement, Academic Watch, and Academic Emergency) of district- and building-level performance completely ignore the reality that the lived experience of the learners has any effect what is portrayed and reported to Ohio's stakeholders. Indeed, both NCLB and Ohio's NCLB-compliant accountability model attribute any and all academic performance to be the result of educators regardless of the background forces and factors of their students taking the tests. Therefore, stakeholders reading the OSRC have no way of knowing if the schools and district are actually advancing academic achievement.

         Given that OSRC is the State's primary means of communicating district and building performance to the public, two additional observations resulting from conducting the research are in order. Both observations have to do directly with researching the credibility factors affecting the Ohio School Report Card. First is the convoluted nature of the report cards themselves. They are extremely difficult to understand beyond the designations used (Excellent with Distinction, Excellent, Effective, Continuous Improvement, Academic Watch and Academic Emergency). The many different categories and the procedures used to derive them are extremely obtuse and the rationale for using them virtually non existent. I encourage the reader to examine closely the Ohio Department of Education's Guide for Ohio's Report Card System 2007-2008[14].

         The second observation has to do with Value Added[15], the newest addition to OSRC. The Guide for Ohio's Report Card System 2007-2008 notes that this achievement indicator is intended to reward or punish schools that exceed performance expectations or fail to meet expectations respectively. The implication is that this measure will adjust the playing field for less advantaged districts and schools. However, stakeholders need to be aware that the gain scores are still based upon selected Ohio Achievement Tests and therefore, are based upon faulty assumptions about the academic validity as presented in this study. Likewise, at the time of this writing, the precise formula for generating Value Added is nowhere to be found in the OSRC, n the Guide, or on the ODE website.

When Ohio's school district test performance is taken at face value, clearly there is a striking differential between rich and poor. However, the central finding of the study shows the reason for this to be the extremely significant bias of OAT and OGT in terms of the social-economic environment in which the children live (Figures 1, 2, 3, and 4). The critical credibility question for Ohio's stakeholders examined in this research study is whether the performance differentials are artifacts of test bias (as shown by the LEI data) or artifacts of bad teaching and schooling-- the latter being the explicit basis for NCLB policies in general and Ohio's school accountability system in particular.

When controlling for LEI, we clearly find an equal number of rich-poor districts showing academic achievement as not. Therefore, the rich-poor achievement gap as portrayed by the State is faulty on at least two levels: 1) It is based upon tests that assess rich-poor more than they assess academic achievement, and 2) It assumes absolute performance is more important than relative academic achievement. That is many schools that are not meeting AYP or are not meeting a sufficient number of OSRC indicators are actually very successful in significantly advancing academic achievement. (See the upper, left quadrant of the graph in Figure 5.)

The reverse is also demonstrably true that many schools categorized as Excellent and Effective and/or that are meeting AYP goals are, in fact, not advancing academic achievement when we control for LEI; they are underperforming. (See the lower, right quadrant of the graph in Figure 5.)

Figure 7 and Figure 8 graph the relationship of district performance by percent white and percent African-Americans respectively. Comparing the two graphs, a performance differential between is clearly visible in Figure 7 that shows as percent white goes up, so does overall test performance (r = 0.48).

- FIGURE 7 -

            Figure 8 shows district performance decreases as the percent of African-Americans increases (r = -0.51). The reason these two graphs are not perfect mirror images of each other is because there are other ethnic and racial groups not included in the study[16].

- FIGURE 8 -

            Compared to the findings in the analysis of the 1997district performance data, the correlation of percent African-American to district performance has increased. In 1997, the r value was -0.35, in 2007 it increased to r = -0.51. The 1997 data showed that when we controlled for the social-economic factors of lived experience (Figure 8), there was only a very slight relationship between percent black and actual district performance as is shown in Figure 9 as taken from the pervious study (Hoover, 2000). In other words, the examination of the racial gap in the 1997 data reveled that it was far less significant when controlling for the effects of poverty than it seemed when taken at face value.

- FIGURE 9 -

            When actual district performance is factored against percent black using the 2007 data as seen in Figure 10, there is a moderate increase in the correlation (r = -0.33) compared to the same procedural results from the 1997 data. However, when we factor for what is called the Coefficient of Determination[17] or r2, the maximum amount of any effect even close to being considered causality is 0.11% of the performance. In other words, arguably, there is an achievement gap, but it is extremely small.

- FIGURE 10 -

            Regardless of the arguments about this achievement gap, one thing is extremely important about the findings: Nowhere in the data or the analysis is there any evidence whatsoever to even remotely suggest that African-American children learn at any level, rate, or ability different from white children. To claim otherwise either explicitly or implicitly is simply wrong and racist.

            What the State Superintendent and ODE must be clear about when they make claims about the black-white achievement gap is that the percent of blacks in poverty, the percent in the less advantaged ranges of the Lived Experience Index is far greater than that the percent of whites. Figure 11 shows the correlation of African-American district populations with the Lived Experience Scores followed by Figure 12 showing the trend for whites.

-FIGURE 11 –

-FIGURE 12 –

            The two graphs (Figure 11 and Figure 12) show the comparative LEI trend for each group. There is an inverse relation in the LEI scores comparing black and white district populations by percent. Clearly, individually and comparatively the graphed data support the tendency for greater numbers of blacks to be in the less advantaged region of the graph. The significance of this in terms of a racial achievement gap is found in understanding that because far more blacks are at the lower end of the LEI scale, the dominant force in lower district performance as percent black increases is lack of wealth, not race. Therefore, all claims of any form of racial achievement gap must be seriously tempered by understanding the role that increasing levels of poverty has across test performance regardless of race.

Section Five:

The Ohio Graduation Test Findings

The Ohio Graduation Test is undoubtedly the most contentious of Ohio's achievement tests because passing the test is a legal requirement for a high school diploma in the State of Ohio. Indeed, the OGT is the only test that is a high stakes test for Ohio's public school students with OGT and OAT all being high stakes for educators. Figures 13-17 show that OGT performance is nearly identical to the overall district test performance. Table 1 shows the very slight relative difference between the correlation coefficients.

- TABLE 1 -

Comparative Correlation Coefficients for All Tests and OGT


All Tests

OGT Only



r = 0.66

r = 0.67



r = -0.74

r = -0.71



r = -0.76

r = -0.75



r = 0.78

r = 0.75


The findings reveal OGT performance to be significantly related to each of the three primary social-economic variables used previously in this study. As would logically be expected, the LEI is highly predictive of OGT performance (r = 0.75). It should be noted that at the time of the research study of 1997 district test performance, the OGT was not yet developed so data comparisons with 2007 performance are not possible.

- FIGURE 13 -

Figure 13 reveals MFI to be significantly correlated with OGT performance (r = 0.59). Again, as with the plots discussed and shown in Figure 1, MFI as a predictor of overall test performance, there is an apparent curvilinear relationship between the two variables, which tells us that it is likely the r value from the linear regression procedure is likely underestimating the correlation. Using the non-linear statistical procedure of linear-log analysis, Figure 13a verifies that the strictly linear analysis does slightly underestimate the correlation of MFI and that OGT performance by MFI is r = 0.63.

- FIGURE 13a -

- FIGURE 14 -

The data on percent economic disadvantaged and district OGT performance, Figure 14, show OGT to be highly correlated (r = -0.71) with the economic conditions of the families from which the children come, thus supporting the overall findings of the study that the tests are extremely sensitive to the living conditions of the students and stand as a more valid measure of those conditions than of academic achievement.

- FIGURE 14 -

            Perhaps the single most telling variable regarding the absence of OGT academic achievement validity is shown in Figure 14. The extremely high correlation of OGT performance to single-parent family conditions is revealed. As briefly discussed previously, SPWE is a significant variable because it carries with it an explicit family condition as well as an economic implication.

- FIGURE 15 –

            Applying the Lived Experience Index (Figure 15) to OGT performance shows us that the OGT suffers from the same validity problem as the other tests do collectively. Whether considered as a fairness issue or a test validity issue, the OGT data and its analysis raise questions that policy makers and stakeholders of Ohio need to address openly and honestly in order to have a State school accountability system with a graduation requirement that is fair to students and their families.

- FIGURE 16 -

            Figure 16 shows the distribution of OGT school district performance controlling for the effects of the social-economic factors that form the LEI in the same manner and format of graph used in Figure 5 showing actual district performance on all tests. Again, what we see are district performances strikingly different from those portrayed in Figure 15 as indicative of what the State reports. The power of LEI for predicting OGT performance (r = 0.75) shown in Figure 15 contrasted with the demonstrated reality of actual performance as shown in Figure 16 seriously undermines the basis for using OGT as a requirement for receiving a high school diploma.

Section Six:

A Brief Discussion of the Findings and Issues

            In most ways, examination of 2007 Ohio school district test performance in light of the 1997 performance stands as a distinction without a difference in that, essentially, nothing has changed— the tests are still demonstrably assessing the attributes and artifacts of students' lived experience to an incredibly high degree. Therefore, it is logical to conclude that any and all aspects of Ohio's school accountability system that are based upon OAT and OGT are flawed to the point that they are simply not credible—not worthy of belief. The Ohio School Report Card still stands as a fundamental misrepresentation of school and district performance.

            The argument that OAT and OGT are not academically valid rests upon the finding of their LEI bias. Additionally, the failure of the State to account for this bias reality masks any actual academic achievement progress or lack of progress as given in the findings on actual district performance. The findings of this research study consistently encompass more than just research-grounded insight into the performance of districts having more disadvantaged children—The performance of advantaged districts is just as invalid as the performance of less advantaged districts.

            A particularly disturbing finding is the use of OGT as a requirement for a high school diploma. Using an academically invalid test as a gatekeeper for high school graduation is grossly unfair to the students and to their families. Indeed, given that the 14th amendment to the United States Constitution guarantees legal due process, an interesting legal argument[18] might be made to argue that using OGT as a means for denying a high school diploma violates the right to due process. In terms of the OGT requirement, we are denying many students diplomas simply because of their family, economic, and social backgrounds irrespective of their talent, ability, capability, or aptitude to succeed and do well in life.

It is not the purpose of this research study to explain in depth why students score as they do--why the Ohio Achievement Tests and Ohio Graduation Tests assess the lived experience of the students at the expense of assessing actual academic achievement. However, it would be remiss to not at least suggest why this is so given the findings of the study. The literature base that addresses lived experience of children and its manifestations in life and in school is extremely vast and varied. There is a wide variety of forces and factors that inform well the phenomenon of standardized test performance, and what has been written does clearly lead to cogent understanding.

          However, one particular study "The Early Catastrophe: The 30 Million Word Gap by Age 3" by Hart and Risley, published in American Educator (Spring, 2003)[19], is arguably a very good starting point for beginning to understand why student performance is what it is as evidenced in this research study. I also strongly recommend Divided We Fail: Issues of Equity in American Schools, written by Crystal M. England and published by Heinemann, 2005. The National Center for Fair & Open Testing at www.fairtest.org is an excellent source for additional insights into the issues of standardized achievement testing across the United States.

Perhaps the three most wrong-headed assumptions underlying systems of school accountability such as found in Ohio and as firmly entrenched in the basis for NCLB are 1) the idea that all children are the same when they come to school, 2) the belief that one paper and pencil test can validly determine the worth, capability, potential, talent, and intellectual ability of any and all school-age children, and 3) the conviction that those paper and pencil tests can determine the professional worthiness of educators. The reality that contradicts those assumptions even at the common sense level is that we are what we have experienced in life—no more, no less. And, given that reality, common sense informs us that the lived experience of school children is extremely varied and often very diverse across families, wealth, individual differences, lifestyles, and enrichment.

To understand why students score as they do, we also need to realize that when tests are standardized, they are normed on particular language use, vocabulary, values, social-economic perspectives, and life experiences. Too often these norms are more or less alien to population groups outside the upper-class social-economic group upon whom the tests are most commonly normed. Depth and breadth of experience as well as enrichment are most often a function of wealth and the opportunity it affords to bring us the material, physical, emotional well-being and security that shape our lived experience as what we know. Likewise, holding educators accountable for providing these kinds of things in schools and in classrooms to students who are less than fully advantaged is absurd even to the severest critics of public educators— or ought to be.

            The findings of this study also inform the issue of educator accountability. Stakeholders need to clearly understand that, with the exception of OGT, the State's school accountability system is high stakes testing for educators only. (In the case of OGT, it is high stakes testing for both educators and high school students.) For Ohio's educators and stakeholders, there is a significant message about school accountability in these research findings that must be made explicit.

            The findings underscore how we are punishing educators because they work in districts with student populations having low LEI conditions. Similarly, Ohio's accountability system reports educator performance with no regard whatsoever for the degree to which educators actually advance academic achievement. Conversely, we give high ratings to districts that have student populations having high LEI conditions regardless of whether the district is truly advancing academic achievement.

            Given the statistically significant data-based evidence that OAT and OGT test performance is primarily determined by the lives of our students outside of school, holding Ohio's schools and educators accountable for test performance is entirely unreasonable and unjust for the educators as well as to the stakeholders of Ohio. What has been absent in school accountability discussions is the fundamental principle that we can hold people accountable for those things and only those things over which they have professional decision latitude and control—authentic accountability.

            Therefore, the basis for school and educator accountability must never be rooted in non-school forces and factors such as the lived experience of the students. To do so is to engage in pseudo accountability at the expense of authentic accountability, the latter being the element most vital to making the Ohio School Report Cards credible for the people of Ohio.

            It was not the intent of this study and its findings to argue against educational accountability. On the contrary, both educator accountability and professional standards are both requisite to insuring a quality system of public schooling. However paradoxical, it is incumbent upon stakeholders and especially professional education associations to hold education policy makers and politicians accountable for a valid and credible education accountability system.

            In the spirit of the age-old adage that a picture is worth a thousand words, Figure 17 is a summary pictorial representation of the most basic finding. It is a graphical expression of district performance and LEI in terms of social-economic class.

- FIGURE 17 -

The graph uses z-score transformations in order to illustrate the very real district performance differentials across social-economic levels and to reasonably, though somewhat arbitrarily[20], identify district performance by social-economic class.

            The following paraphrases the conclusion of the 2000 research study: Rejection of these findings regarding overall OAT validity means that we full\y accept the position that wealth and advantage define academic intelligence, that the wealthier the students, the more intelligent they are than less wealthy students. This position is absurd from any perspective — wealth does not define intelligence nor does it determine the ability to learn.

[1] Ohio had 611 districts reporting data in 2007. Two districts were omitted because of the extremely small student populations.

[2] http://cc.ysu.edu/~rlhoover/OPT/

[3] http://www.ode.ohio.gov/www/ims/

[4] http://tax.ohio.gov/divisions/tax_analysis/tax_data_series/school_district_data/publications_tds_school.stm

[5] Data from 1999 federal tax returns were used because it was the most recent data available at the time of the study.

[6] Y = cLn(x) + b

[7] LEI =(9.42-SPWE) + (28.83-PED) + [ (33-MFI/1000)(-1) ]

[8] In the 2000 research study, a similar index was used and termed "Presage Factor," which was an arithmetic combination of % free/reduced lunch, %economic disadvantaged, and mean family income. The term is not used in this research because the LEI uses only one of the previous variables. Likewise, the term was not readily understood by lay readers.

[9] Much of this section is extracted directly from the earlier study simply because the explanation of the meaning and methodology for actual performance does not change.

[10] Since the release of the 2000 study, many have asked me if using actual performance by controlling for SES was a form of value added methodology. The answer is yes.

[11] A list of the highest performing Ohio districts may be found in Appendix B. Only the top 204 districts are given because I do not wish to have these data used inappropriately against any Ohio school district.

[12] Statistical validity is a scientifically derived mathematical procedure and a key principle for upholding test standards.

[13] If a test cannot be shown to be valid, reliability is moot.

[14] http://www.ode.state.oh.us/GD/Templates/Pages/ODE/ODEDetail.aspx?page=3&TopicRelationID=1266&ContentID=52790&Content=52818

[15] Research regarding the appropriateness and validity of Value Added will be conducted subsequent to the release of this study --rlh.

[16] Minorities other than African-American have been omitted from analysis simply because their distribution across Ohio school districts is too few to yield any meaningful insights. ODE disaggregates these data into American Indian or Alaska Native; Asian or Pacific Islander; Black; Hispanic; Multiracial; and White

[17] The coefficient of determination (r2) derived by squaring the correlation coefficient derived from the Pearson Correlation procedure. In this case (r = -0.33) therefore r2 = -0.332 = 0.11).

[18] This author is not a lawyer and is not offering formal legal advice though he has studied school law and teaches a graduate level course in that area.

[19] This article may be found online at http://www.aft.org/pubs-reports/american_educator/spring2003/catastrophe.html

[20] The LEI "Class" designations are arbitrary only in the sense that they are assigned using standard deviations above and below the mean. They are reasonable in the sense that they are logically derived from a reasoned statistical procedure.